NBA Playoff Betting Tips: Celtics-Bucks, Grizzlies-Warriors Game 5s

All odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

What you need to know for tonight’s playoff games

Jayson the creator? Jayson Tatum is becoming a superstar before our eyes, and it’s more than just his elite scoring ability. Tatum has emerged as a playmaker for Boston role players, collecting 32 assists in four home games this postseason and 19 dimes in four road games. His 3-point prop is also worth watching tonight. While Tatum has missed 13 of 16 3s over the past two games, he’s made 45.2% of his 3s at home this postseason, compared to 32% on the road. Big players come in big games, and Tatum is poised to look good tonight.

Get Wiggy with it: The Warriors have no interest in playing their big men. Even with Steven Adams nearly doubling his total playoff minutes in Game 4, Golden State played Jonathan Kuminga and Kevon Looney for just 20 minutes. Instead, they continue to feature wingers like Andrew Wiggins and Otto Porter Jr. That should continue tonight as the Warriors look to close out the series in Game 5. The versatile rotation has plenty of positives. Although the Warriors don’t appear to have a traditional rebounder on the court, Wiggins has averaged 9.0 boards in three of the last four games. Targeting his rebound prop is the best play tonight given his pseudo big man role.

–Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe

Breaking down tonight’s games

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics
7 p.m. ET, TD Garden, Boston

Double: Celtics (-5.5)
Money line: Celtics (-210), Bucks (+175)
Total: 214.5 points
BPI Total projected: 219.7 points
BPI gain %: Celtics (82.3%)

Questionable: Nothing

Excluded: Khris Middleton (knee)
Note: BPI figures take excluded players into account, but assume questionable players will play.

Notable: The Celtics are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games, and there could be an angle to go under that total. Under-tickets have cashed in 56.9% of games in which Boston is favored by more than three points.

Best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo on 51.5 points + assists + rebounds. The Bucks have relied heavily on Antetokounmpo this series, especially with Khris Middleton out. Game 4 was Antetokounmpo’s 14th career playoff game with 30 points, 10 rebounds and five assists, tying Wilt Chamberlain for fifth most in NBA history. Antetokounmpo should be able to get his 15th tonight. –Eric Moody

Best bet: Dollars +5.5. It was the epitome of a tight series of back and forths. Both teams have won on each other’s turf, and the last two games have featured several fourth-quarter lead changes. It would be tough for me to give 5.5 points either side, and especially with the Bucks trying to bounce back, I’m going to take them and the points. — Andre Snellings

Best bet: Under 214.5

Game 4 totaled 153 points over three quarters before a 71-point explosion in the fourth. This huge fourth quarter has been the outlier of this series so far. In the first three games, under bets won by an average of more than 17 points per game. In a crucial game 5 between two physical and defensive teams, I think the low scores will return. –Snellings

Best bet: Brook Lopez over 17.5 points + assists + rebounds. Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday made up nearly 58% of the Bucks’ total shot attempts in Game 4, and by the end of the game they looked exhausted. The Bucks will need someone else to step in in Game 5, and Lopez is a likely candidate. — Moody

Best bet: Jrue Holiday on 1.5 interceptions. Holiday is averaging 2.3 GSP so far in the series, and the Bucks lead the NBA in defensive efficiency (99.4) through the playoffs. Holiday has averaged 1.7 SPG in the nine playoff games he has played this year. He should continue to have success in defense in Game 5. — Moody

Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies
9:30 p.m. ET, FedExForum, Memphis, TN

Double: Warriors (-4)
Money line: Warriors (-170), Grizzlies (+145)
Total: 218.5 points
BPI Total projected: 222.1 points
BPI gain %: Warriors (51.7%)

Questionable: Nothing

Excluded: Ja Morant, Gary Payton II (elbow), Andre Iguodala (neck)
Note: BPI figures take excluded players into account, but assume questionable players will play.

Notable: The Grizzlies have covered three of four games as an underdog this postseason after going 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 regular-season games as an underdog.

Best bet: Warriors -4. This series is a wrap. The line went from -2.5 to -4 after Ja Morant was ruled out for the remainder of the playoffs, and while Memphis was able to cover Game 4, tonight will be a different situation. The Warriors had to adjust to the way the Grizzlies play without Morant, and Stephen Curry didn’t start until the fourth quarter. I think free throws also played a role, as the Warriors shot 91% from the charity stripe, compared to 60% for the Grizzlies. Golden State is the better team offensively and defensively, and they have the snipers to cover that number and advance to the Western Conference Finals. –Erin Dolan

Best bet: Klay Thompson on 20.5 points. I’m playing with my instincts a bit here. It just feels like it’s time for a signature Klay game. Thompson was on a good streak for most of the first round and also averaged 29.7 PPG on 53.0 FG% and 50.6 3P% in his final three games of the regular season. His shooting has gone cold in this series, culminating in an 0-for-7 3-point effort in Game 4. Thompson is too pure a shooter to stay cold forever, and he’ll be looking to rebound in Game 5 — Snelling

Best bet: Jordan Poole with over 28.5 points + assists + rebounds. Poole’s work ethic during the regular season paid off in the playoffs. The Warriors have the Grizzlies on the ropes heading into Game 5 and will be looking to pack a knockout punch. Poole has averaged 23 PPG, 5.3 APG, and 5.3 RPG in the series so far. — Moody

Best bet: Stephen Curry with over 28.5 points. Curry tied James Harden for the 12th-most 30-point playoff game in NBA history (45) on Monday night and is one game behind Dirk Nowitzki for 11th. I believe Curry has another 30-point performance in Game 5. He has a track record of performing well in elimination games, averaging 27.9 PPG. — Moody

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