All odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
What you need to know for Game 7
Miami’s Sweet Home: There have been 145 Game 7s in the NBA playoffs, and home teams have won 76.5% of them. The Heat are 7-2 at home in the playoffs, losing Games 2 and 5 after starting the playoffs 7-0 at home. Miami is 6-4 all-time in Game 7. Under coach Erik Spoelstra, it’s 4-2, including a perfect 4-0 at home. In the previous six Game 7 games Spoelstra has coached, the Heat have a plus-6.0 ppg differential.
Jimmy Buckets: Jimmy Butler led Miami’s offensive attack in a resurgent performance Friday that saw him score more points in Game 6 alone than in Games 3, 4 and 5 combined (47 vs. 27). Butler finished with 47 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists and 4 steals, one of the best efforts against elimination in Heat and NBA history. Butler’s 47 points are the most by a Heat player facing elimination, and coincidentally, the three best performances in Heat history have now all come against the Celtics.
I went there, I did this: When it comes to Game 7, the Celtics are experienced. They have played and won more 7 games than any other franchise. The Celtics are 25-9 all-time in Game 7, and their .735 winning percentage in Game 7 is the best among franchises with at least two games played. They are 4-4 in 7 games played on the road.
— ESPN statistics and information
Break down game 7
8:30 p.m. ET, FTX Arena, Miami
Line: Celtics (-2.5)
Money line: Celtics (-140), Heat (+120)
Total: 195.5 points
BPI Earnings %: Heat (51.3%)
Questionable: Marcus Smart (ankle), Tyler Herro (groin), Robert Williams III (knee), Max Strus (hamstring), Gabe Vincent (hamstring)
Note: BPI figures take excluded players into account, but assume questionable players will play.
Notable: The 195.5 total is the lowest of any game this season (first game below 200) and the lowest of any playoff game since 2018.
Notable: The Heat are only the third team to be a home underdog in a Game 7 in the last 30 seasons (excluding the 2020 bubble). The previous two went 1-1 and ATS. – ESPN statistics and information
Best bet: Celtics -2.5, over 195.5. The Heat surprised the world with an incredible performance in Game 6 to regain the home court and momentum heading into Game 7 on Sunday night. I don’t expect Jimmy Butler to have another 47-point performance, which was necessary for the Heat to win by eight points. Leave to marinate in it for a minute. I believe the Celtics underestimated an injury-riddled Heat team that was on the road. Game 6 was a wake-up call, and Boston usually follows a loss with a win. Al Horford had a night off (going 1 for 6 from deep), Smart was 1 for 9 from deep, Jayson Tatum had seven turnovers, Jaylen Brown had four turnovers – and I don’t expect to see him again that . I’m also playing the overhand here, where that total is WAY too low, considering the overhand has reached four of six games. I respect the defense, but there’s way too much firepower on this pitch. – Anita Marques
Best bet: Brown over 24.5 points. The Celtics need Brown to step in. In Game 6, he scored 20 points, but two came in the second half. I don’t expect that to be the case on Sunday night. Brown insisted after Game 6 that the Celtics pull themselves together in Game 7. He averaged 23 PPG in the 2022 playoffs. In Game 7, Brown has a legitimate chance to lead the Celtics in scoring. -Eric Moody
Best bet: Over 195.5. I was hammering the top to start the series because despite the excellence of both defenses, these two teams usually score well on each other. By the start of Game 4, they had scored at least 204 combined points in five consecutive games (going back to the regular season), with an average score of 216.8 PPG. Then, in Games 4 and 5, the Heat suffered multiple injuries, which caused them to produce two historically inept scoring games and therefore two under. But with the Heat looking healthy in Game 6, the score returned to par and the teams combined for a more typical 214 points. While Game 7s are often defensive affairs, if teams are healthy they should go over 195.5. –– Andre Snellings
Best bet: Tatum on 41.5 total points + assists + rebounds. This game is late in the series, which usually means Tatum is about to put a big number on the board. Over the last four games of the Bucks-Celtics series, Tatum has averaged 33.3 PPG, 8.5 RPG and 5.3 APG, topping 41.5 PAR three times. Over the last three games of this series, Tatum has averaged 27.7 PPG, 9.7 RPG, and 6.0 APG, and topped 41.5 PAR all three times. If he’s healthy, I’m looking for Tatum to get big in Game 7. — Andre Snellings
Best bet: Butler with 40.5+ total points + assists + rebounds. The Butlers have been some of the best playoff bets so far. The only exception was when his knee got the better of him in games 3-5. But, he bounced back in a big way in Game 6, and I can’t imagine we’ll see anything but super-Butler in that crucial Game 7 as he tries to get the Heat back to the Finals. — Andre Snellings
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